The Traitors series 4 odds reveal favourite for first murder and contestant tipped to win
The contenders for the secret Red Traitor have also been shared…
The Traitors series 4 started on BBC One last night. But things are set to get really juicy tonight as the first murder and roundtable of the series take place.
Last night (January 1) saw 22 new hopefuls enter host Claudia Winkleman’s castle. Once there, she decided on her four Traitors – one of whom remains a secret from everyone in the castle and viewers at home.
And, with a shortlist of three contestants up for murder at the start of episode 2, here’s an exclusive look at who’s favourite to leave first, who’ll be banished, who is odds-on to win and who the mysterious Red Traitor could be…
The Traitors set for first murder tonight
It looks like bad news for Netty as she’s the 1/3 on favourite to be murdered first. Maz sits at 7/1, with James currently at 7/1 of leaving first.
Sports Casting UK spokesperson Shane Orton told us: “From a tactical point of view, the first murder is about control rather than shock. Netty stands out as the obvious choice because removing her would break an existing real-world bond in the game. That’s always risky for the Traitors.
“James, by contrast, has been throwing out plenty of names, which actually works in the Traitors’ favour by muddying the waters. So there’s a strong case for keeping him in.
“Maz feels like the wildcard option, a murder that would leave the group scratching their heads. With the shortlist drawn up by the Secret Traitor, the choices look carefully thought out rather than random.”
First banishment odds
With the first murder out of the way, it’ll be onto the first roundtable of The Traitors 2026.
Judy is favourite to be banished, at odds of 2/1. She’s followed by Matthew (4/1); Jade (11/2); Fiona (7/1); James (9/1); and Netty (10/1).
Shane told us: “From a first banishment point of view, it’s no surprise to see Judy near the top of the market. Her name – along with Matthew’s – came up repeatedly in early discussions. And that kind of attention can be hard to shake at the first roundtable.
“While she does have daughter Roxy quietly looking out for her, you have to wonder whether the sheer volume of early suspicion she’s attracted could ultimately work against her.”
Who is hiding behind the Secret Traitor’s red cloak?
Bookies reckon it’s Amanda, offering odds of 2/1 that it’s her. Judy (7/2), Fiona (4/1) and Roxy (4/1) are all in close contention, though.
“Fan theories around the Secret Traitor are already gathering pace. Many viewers are convinced it could be an older contestant based on the handwriting and the logic behind the message.
“There’s also a feeling among fans that it may be a woman, given the current two-to-one male split among the original Traitors.”
Shane added: “From what viewers were shown, Amanda, Judy and Fiona had all previously said they would like to be Traitors, which has naturally fed into speculation online. Roxy is another interesting possibility, as a secret Traitor role could allow her to quietly steer suspicion away from her mum Judy without drawing attention to herself.”
So who’ll win The Traitors 2026?
The early favourite to win is Traitor Rachel. She has odds of 4/1 of scooping the prize pot. Stephen (5/1), Hugo (8/1), Ellie (10/1) and Amanda (12/1) have also been backed by the public to win.
Shane concluded: “Punters have reacted quickly to the opening episode, installing Rachel as the early favourite in the winner market. She already looks like compelling TV, appearing comfortable with deception and seemingly embracing the Traitor role.
“Fellow Traitors Stephen and Hugo are also prominent in the betting, reflecting the early advantage Traitors often hold in the game.”
Read more: The Traitors fans convinced that Claudia Winkleman is the Secret Traitor under the red cloak
